I know exactly what Republicans are doing right now. They're looking at the polls in key swing states and thinking "it's pretty close." They're thinking the polls haven't taken into account the groundswell of opposition to the incumbent -- just how intensely people hate him. Republicans are looking at a post from a political scientist who makes a pretty convincing case that all his peers have got it wrong. They're refusing to believe that anyone could vote for this guy -- that surely people will get into the voting booth and snap to their senses. Or maybe they'll just stay home. They're thinking about how crucially important this election is and how failure is just not an option. The Republican candidate just has to win and that's all there is to it. They're looking at that one poll and thinking, maybe that poll is truly the right poll after all. They're reading reassuring blog posts from their internet buddies that set aside the technical data and explain in common sense terms why victory will be theirs. And it all makes sense -- of course, yes, those people could be right. They're listening to the media that keeps saying over and over again, "it's a tossup, anything could happen."
I know what the Republicans are doing right now. And I know how that ends.